由于2007年第四季度整体运行情况平稳,因此上市公司的业绩水平依然保持着稳定的增长态势,从机构对业绩预测的调整幅度来看,除了丰原生化(000930)、伊泰B股(900948)等寥寥几个外,跌破眼镜的情况并不多见,这种情况说明了今年实行的新会计制度有效防止了上市公司做业绩的情况出现,内生型的增长方式仍然是市场的主流,这就为稳定2008年行情信心打下了基础。不过粗略估算一下,照此结果预测的上市公司,2007年的平均市盈率仍偏高,整体上业绩增长无法赶上股价上涨速度,因此,预计结构性的价格调整将会贯穿2008年行情。从统计的最近一个月份机构研究报告业绩预测向上调整最大的股票来看,有三类股我们认为值得关注。
基本资料 | 市场最新预测平均值 | 2008年预测净利调整变动(%) |
简称 | 2007*EPS | 2007*PE | 2008*EPS | 2008*PE | 最新/ 1月前 | 最新/ 1季前 | 最新/半年前 |
丰原生化 | 0.08 | 119.12 | 0.13 | 72.73 | 77.60% | 212.93% | 47.97% |
伊泰B股 | 2.28 | 3.59 | 2.33 | 3.51 | 27.75% | 27.75% | 76.08% |
宏润建设 | 0.73 | 29.13 | 0.94 | 22.68 | 34.32% | 28.93% | 61.00% |
大众公用 | 0.14 | 156.71 | 0.2 | 103.59 | 27.33% | 27.33% | 27.33% |
海南椰岛 | 0.42 | 61.72 | 0.6 | 43.15 | 35.02% | 35.02% | 35.02% |
鑫富药业 | 0.86 | 45.3 | 0.64 | 61.04 | 38.32% | 38.32% | 38.32% |
上电股份 | 2.91 | 22.55 | 4.63 | 14.14 | 12.89% | 12.89% | 261.35% |
辽宁成大 | 1.99 | 21.95 | 2.48 | 17.62 | 22.15% | 78.39% | 306.05% |
红豆股份 | 0.23 | 41.71 | 0.44 | 21.74 | 89.24% | 107.26% | 56.97% |
广博股份 | 0.38 | 39.44 | 0.5 | 30.16 | 17.26% | 17.42% | 17.42% |
*ST广厦 | 0.37 | 34.03 | 0.82 | 15.27 | -7.59% | -0.73% | -0.73% |
信隆实业 | 0.2 | 42.2 | 0.3 | 27.59 | 38.07% | 29.14% | 29.14% |
复星医药 | 0.33 | 48.55 | 0.43 | 37.38 | 20.08% | 27.37% | 36.20% |
中国人寿 | 1.14 | 38.77 | 1.51 | 29.38 | 11.35% | 20.37% | 64.49% |
云内动力 | 0.52 | 35.82 | 0.63 | 29.32 | 39.92% | 39.92% | 39.92% |
中国船舶 | 4.63 | 48.98 | 7.09 | 31.94 | 15.49% | 69.60% | 246.41% |
中国远洋 | 1.16 | 31.3 | 1.5 | 24.19 | 12.64% | 51.04% | 383.15% |
恒生电子 | 0.54 | 59.24 | 0.72 | 44.44 | 13.33% | 20.72% | 57.69% |
沱牌曲酒 | 0.14 | 127.75 | 0.29 | 59.06 | 26.39% | 26.39% | 106.14% |
长城信息 | 0.2 | 126.99 | 0.29 | 88.98 | 15.68% | 15.68% | -4.11% |
苏威孚B | 0.32 | 36.24 | 0.83 | 13.88 | -4.08% | -4.08% | 2.17% |
丽江旅游 | 0.63 | 47.76 | 0.68 | 44.38 | 9.97% | 9.81% | 28.47% |
四川长虹 | 0.22 | 46.17 | 0.36 | 28.14 | -2.51% | 8.36% | 6.81% |
泛海建设 | 0.83 | 49.93 | 1.53 | 27.09 | 12.96% | 6.98% | 11.29% |
远兴能源 | 0.26 | 107.79 | 0.65 | 42.48 | 15.99% | 17.42% | 25.33% |
首钢股份 | 0.25 | 30.66 | 0.28 | 27.39 | 9.54% | 21.09% | 21.09% |
上海能源 | 0.83 | 35.8 | 0.93 | 31.85 | 14.86% | 23.12% | 20.38% |
杉杉股份 | 0.25 | 76.87 | 0.29 | 66.39 | 14.23% | -4.37% | -17.91% |
华工科技 | 0.28 | 57.09 | 0.43 | 36.94 | 9.91% | 9.91% | 9.91% |
上实发展 | 0.42 | 133.9 | 0.72 | 78.75 | 2.25% | 2.15% | 11.78% |
恒瑞医药 | 0.77 | 73.5 | 1.01 | 56.12 | 7.27% | 11.69% | 20.04% |
方圆支承 | 0.48 | 98.31 | 0.76 | 62.32 | 9.33% | 11.46% | 17.33% |
东方航空 | 0.16 | 112.76 | 0.35 | 51.07 | 3.80% | 21.42% | 50.06% |
兴业银行 | 1.42 | 32.51 | 2.08 | 22.21 | 9.42% | 20.86% | 41.47% |
文山电力 | 0.42 | 50.2 | 0.56 | 37.56 | 9.96% | 20.67% | 36.50% |
格力电器 | 1.21 | 48.51 | 1.71 | 34.45 | 6.87% | 15.25% | 49.12% |
飞亚达A | 0.2 | 83.01 | 0.31 | 53.09 | 9.75% | 9.75% | 9.75% |
天富热电 | 0.29 | 125.1 | 0.67 | 55.05 | 8.53% | 6.21% | 24.75% |
宏图高科 | 0.14 | 215.51 | 0.83 | 36.33 | 12.66% | 817.27% | 817.27% |
万向钱潮 | 0.27 | 50.02 | 0.35 | 37.74 | 7.58% | 21.75% | 29.26% |
华星化工 | 0.52 | 80.25 | 1.04 | 40.15 | 32.24% | 50.82% | 60.39% |
南方航空 | 0.4 | 59.1 | 0.69 | 34.7 | 5.98% | 16.90% | 36.86% |
华北制药 | 0.09 | 116.61 | 0.18 | 54.27 | 5.58% | 29.60% | 68.95% |
泰达股份 | 0.34 | 61.36 | 0.5 | 41.13 | 0.13% | -16.74% | -24.11% |
楚天高速 | 0.3 | 26.86 | 0.39 | 21.2 | -2.57% | -3.39% | -3.39% |
威海广泰 | 0.59 | 76.07 | 0.88 | 51.11 | 1.07% | 1.07% | 5.20% |
S仪化 | 0.04 | 261.54 | 0.06 | 161.65 | 5.64% | 8.25% | 20.04% |
七匹狼 | 0.43 | 71.07 | 0.7 | 43.76 | 7.51% | 24.80% | 39.69% |
凤竹纺织 | 0.27 | 34.62 | 0.32 | 29.18 | 7.92% | 4.41% | -7.61% |
三钢闽光 | 0.78 | 23.21 | 1.03 | 17.5 | 17.20% | 22.98% | 32.39% |
现代制药 | 0.34 | 39.74 | 0.4 | 33.87 | 4.30% | 4.30% | 9.49% |
晨鸣纸业 | 0.55 | 33.82 | 0.68 | 27.23 | 9.16% | 10.96% | 18.49% |
农产品 | 0.54 | 62.91 | 0.89 | 38.13 | 47.71% | 71.72% | 66.93% |
招商银行 | 0.92 | 40.05 | 1.38 | 26.67 | 5.37% | 10.17% | 44.36% |
中泰化学 | 0.76 | 52.89 | 1 | 40.33 | 9.40% | 42.77% | 49.64% |
千金药业 | 0.74 | 56.32 | 0.98 | 42.71 | 4.28% | 6.43% | 30.68% |
中色股份 | 0.78 | 40.96 | 1.13 | 28.41 | 5.75% | -6.46% | 25.44% |
青岛软控 | 0.89 | 56.98 | 1.25 | 40.88 | 13.80% | 13.80% | 33.17% |
白云山A | 0.32 | 45.76 | 0.38 | 38.16 | 1.63% | 2.33% | 4.69% |
天康生物 | 0.56 | 41.81 | 0.71 | 32.74 | 7.79% | 7.00% | 10.20% |
中国玻纤 | 0.52 | 58.29 | 0.95 | 31.78 | 20.59% | 19.31% | 61.03% |
雅戈尔 | 0.83 | 27.49 | 0.73 | 31.37 | 4.13% | 11.26% | 15.51% |
福田汽车 | 0.44 | 26.93 | 0.59 | 19.74 | 10.49% | 5.30% | 35.91% |
华天酒店 | 0.45 | 51.65 | 0.58 | 40.63 | 113.85% | 115.79% | 101.13% |
天润发展 | 0.48 | 39.38 | 0.65 | 29.14 | 4.36% | 4.36% | 4.36% |
昆明机床 | 0.45 | 58.82 | 0.65 | 40.52 | 5.46% | 21.24% | 80.27% |